More good news for the housing market!

Bottom Line – Pending-home sales up by most in almost a year

bottomline.msnbc.msn.com

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes surged in October by the most in nearly a year as Americans took advantage of low interest rates for mortgages, data from a real estate trade group showed on Wednesday.

Positive note for new and existing home sales for October ’11!

New-home sales edge higher

money.cnn.com

New home sales rose to an annual sales rate of 307,000 new homes last month, up 1.3% from a revised rate of 303,000 homes in September, the Census Bureau reports.

The last couple of years show slow BUT SURE growth in the number of homes sold in Lebanon – ’11 (126) is currently showing a 4% growth from ’10 (121) which was up about the same percentage from ’09 (116)…. Coming off a high in ’07 with 158 homes selling YTD.

Average DOM is starting to come down from 118 in ’10 & 111 in ’09 to 96 in ’11 – this is down by around 20%. Median DOM in ’11 (50) is down around 17% form ’10(60) & ’09 (59).

The average selling price which was the same in ’10 & ’09 ($215K) has gone down in ’11 to 200K which is around a 7% correction in the market. Median selling price has gone down 3% in ’11( $194K) from ’10 ($200K) and around 8% from ’09 ($211K).

This is good news for the Lebanon NH housing market in that more homes are selling and in a shorter period of time than any time since the ’08 crash. It seems that seller’s are more realistic about pricing their homes and buyers are are seeing value in purchasing instead of renting with the current low interest rates and price corrections!

MORE ON THE RENT VS. BUY MARKET NEXT WEEK!

Cheers, Carol

So while the numbers look okay it is still a long way off from the peak year of ’05 when 112 homes sold YTD and Average DOM was 66/Median DOM 31…….

This tells me that though the number of homes selling is up from ’10 they are staying on the market longer. This could be for a number of reasons but most likely it has something to do with seller’s not recognizing the correction in the market and taking time for them to reduce the pricing to a point where buyers are willing to make an offer.

The average selling price of a home in Hanover went down but only by 1.5% in ’11 ($519K) from ’10 ($527K)…..however it is up dramatically 22% from ’09 (406K). Median selling price is up 4% in ’11 (($475K) from ’10 ($449K) and again a big increase of 18% in ’09 ($385).

Some conclusions that could be drawn are that in ’09 and ’10 the 1st time homebuyers credit was in effect and many new buyers came into the Hanover market but with limited purchasing power. Also, in ’10 and ’11 more buyers came back in the $500K and up market, which took a beating in ’09 and early ‘10 after the October ’08 crash.  However, the homes that are selling in the upper end of the market are taking much larger hit in the list/sell ratio – 7% in ’11 and 8% in ’10.

So, it seems that Hanover and the Upper Valley area continue to feel the effects of the current economic circumstances but in relation to a large part of the United States we continue to be more insulated than most.

Happy Thanksgiving, Carol

Generally speaking, waterfront sales on both lakes have been solid both this year and last year with 11 properties selling on the lakes in 2010 and 7 closed and 1 pending at this point in 2011.  That compares with 3 sales for both lakes in 2009, 5 in 2008, 11 in 2007 and 3 in 2006.  It is interesting to note that lakefront sales in terms of unit numbers and sales dollars have been relatively strong this year and in 2010 in spite of or perhaps because of the recession.

One thing that stands out year to year is that in 2010, 9 of the 11 sales were on Mascoma Lake and sold on average at approximately 1.13% of assessed value.  In 2011, 5 out of 7 sales were on Crystal Lake and have been on average selling for approximately .98% of assessed value.  It seems 2011 has been a good year to buy Lakefront property, particularly on Crystal Lake

If you are looking for a camp on Crystal Lake, 80 Hawley Drive (MLS 4058271) appears to be well priced at $329,000 when compared to its assessed value of $378,000.  The price also compares favorably with recent sales of similar 4 season camps with approximately 100 feet of shore frontage.

If you would consider renovating an antique cape on a nice .74 -acre lot with 401 feet of water frontage, 436 Lockhaven Rd. (MLS 4085081) is priced at its assessed value of $349,900.  While not having the water views, this would make a great home with its very nice lake frontage to enjoy.

Lastly, if you are looking for a place to park a camper and a boat on Mascoma Lake, how about a .15 acre lot with 59 feet of lake frontage a public and a sewer hook up available on Rt. 4A (MLS4079586) priced at $134,900, $8,100 below its assessed value.  While you won’t have much elbowroom you will have very inexpensive access to a great lake.

A particular sale that stands out in 2010 is 64 Shaker Boulevard on Mascoma Lake, a very nice four season cottage with 230 feet of shore frontage on .6 acres that sold for $350,000 after just 19 days on the market in October of 2010.  This same cottage was listed for sale in late May of 2007 at $274,900 and sold after 9 days on the market in a bidding war for $350,000.   As good an indicator as you will find that lakefront values have remained reasonably stable over the last few years.

When you look at the lakefront inventory remaining on the market at this time, it shakes out like this.  There are 7 properties currently listed on Crystal Lake and 6 on Mascoma Lake, of the 13 properties, 9 are priced well above their assessed value and in general have spent significant time on the market.  The remaining 4 properties are priced at or below assessed value which indicates to me that the Sellers are in tune with the actual market and motivated to sell.

If you are considering buying property on either Mascoma Lake or Crystal Lake, please come in and talk with Carol or I.  Not only can we help you sort through the market data; we can help you assess all the attributes that contribute to the value of a particular lakefront property.  Having just purchased property ourselves on Mascoma Lake in 2010, we are uniquely qualified to help with your lakefront purchase.

Cheers, Matt

The Norwich Inn has a brewery to serve the restaurant and the locals, my brother in-law and I enjoyed a few pints of the signature brew – Whistling Pig Red Ale.   The service was great and the food was all well prepared, I had the ribs done in a beer sauce and smoked in house – they were excellent.  Lean, smokey and with a sticky beer BBQ sauce, I’ll be back for more another day.  The fish special was Striped Bass, always a great tasting fish when caught on the New England coast and brought to your plate.  The Filet was also exceptional, clearly the Chef at the Inn knows how to buy, prepare and serve great food.

The Norwich Inn remains one of the unique places in the Upper Valley that provide nightlife and energy in our small town world.  If you would like to find out more about the food, beer and accommodations available at the Norwich Inn, check out their website or drop by for a pint.

Check out more about Norwich VT at theuppervalley.com

Cheers, Matt

85 homes have sold through October 11, 2011, this is on the low side compared to the years of 2003 – 2008, but is nonetheless a respectable number when compared over the last decade.  Pending sales ytd of 53 homes however have only been lower once at this point in the year and that was 2009.  Again the market has cooled as the season has progressed when compared to the past decade.   Surprisingly, with inventory of new listings at a historically high number of 156 units, days on market is respectably low at 85.  This seems to be the result of motivated Lebanon home sellers realistically pricing their homes to compete in the 2011 market.  The average sale price of $221,442 in Lebanon has only been lower in the past 10 years during the years of 2002 & 2003 when it was $197,600 and $219,175 respectively.  Median sale price reached its ytd peak in 2007 at $265,400.  In comparison median sale price ytd in 2011 stands at $210,000, that implies that 50% of homes sold ytd have sold for on average $50,000 less then they did 4 short years ago!

With homes selling at historically low prices, unit sales at respectably high levels and days on market declining, it seems Buyers are once again finding value in Lebanon single family homes.  When you factor in today’s low interest rates, it is clearly one of the best years in the past decade to buy a home in Lebanon.  If you are thinking of buying a home in Lebanon, remember we are the areas only real estate agents who work only for Buyers.  We would be glad to help you indentify a home you will love to live in and then help you develop a strategy to buy it at the price you want.

Matt & Carol

Pending homes however are at historically low levels for the period at 29 through August this year.  Only two of the last 10 years have shown lower pending numbers for the period, 2009 & 2010 at 28 and 22 respectively. Prior year ranged from 42 units pending in 2008 to a high of 75 units in 2005.  With average days on market for single-family homes at a ten year high of 137 for the period, homes are spending an extra month or two on the market when compared to the pre-recession years.  This seems to indicate that the market has cooled significantly this year as the selling season has progressed relative to past years.

Median and average sale prices however stand at $607,573 and $525,000 respectively; these values have only been exceeded in the years of 2008 and 2010.  Homes in Hanover are selling thus far in 2011 at historically high average and median prices as compared to pre-recession years.

So what does this mean?  It seems to me that with sold prices and total units sold at historically high levels, Buyers have been there in 2011 for Hanover homes that offer the quality they require and the value they seek.   Yet with inventory and days on market at historically high levels and pending sales at historically low levels, it seems to follow that a significant number of Sellers are not offering their homes to Buyers at the value required today relative to the attributes of the home.

What would explain this?  I did a quick random survey of homes currently on the market in Hanover and found several homes that are now priced at or near what the homeowner paid for the home.  Obviously the prices paid in the boom years are haunting the market now, some Sellers are just not able or willing to adjust pricing to the levels required to obtain a sale today.  Another factor seems to be that qualified Buyers now are just not willing to deal with issues a home may have and some Sellers are slow to recognize this change in Buyer behavior.  It is what I’ll call the Goldilocks rule – if it is too hot or too cold Buyers will keep looking until they find the home that is just right.  As a result homes on busy streets, homes that are dated or that have other challenges will not sell until the defects are adequately compensated for in the price – period.

If you are considering buying a home in Hanover, we would be glad to help you through the process.  We have the experience, patience, perspective and data to help you find the home that is just right for you in this turbulent market.

Matt & Carol

Starting with the town of Hanover, we pulled data from NNEREN for the years 2001 through 2010; here are some of the highlights.  The bubble years are clearly identifiable in the Hanover market as the years of 2005, 2006 and 2007.  Total sales reported by NNEREN peaked at $50,686,894 in 2005; this was up a whopping 18 million from 2004, literally a 50% increase in total volume in 1 year!  It dropped 2 million each of the following years with 2007 closing out at $46,934,069.  Things clearly cooled off in 2008 as total sales dropped another 9 million, but there is no doubt the bubble had burst in 2009 as total sales plummeted to $26,853,300.  Hanover had not seen total sales volume that low since 2002.

As total $ volume rose, so did total units listed and sold – it seems everybody who could buy or sell was in the game during the years of 2005-2007.  New listings peaked in 2006 at 130; sold units peaked in 2005 at 92.  2005 was also the best year Sellers had in getting what they asked for a property with the median list/sell ratio reaching a high as 97.6%.  Pending deals also peaked in 2005 with 94 units pending for the year.

Well, times are certainly different now.  2009 saw the lowest total dollar volume of real estate sold in Hanover in 10 years, $26,853,3000 – almost ½ the volume of the peak year of 2005.  From working through that market, I can tell you that it was all about high price listings not selling in 2009.  That was the end of firm pricing for Hanover, as the pricing at the top of the market softened, it caused the middle market in Hanoverto soften as well.  Oddly enough you don’t see this reality in the NNEREN data directly.  Average sale price has actually been remarkably stable; it actually reached a 10 year high in Hanover in 2010 at $611,269.  What this really reflects is a big change in the mix of homes being sold with far fewer being sold, but at higher average and median pricing.  Unit sales in Hanover have been at 10 year lows, last year 55 homes sold in Hanover, 52 in 2009 – a drop of 45 units from the peak in 2005.

So what does all this mean for today’s market?  Taking a look at current 2011 NNEREN data helps put things in perspective.  New listings have been appearing on the market in numbers consistent with the boom years, but they are not going under contract as they did then.  For example, lets look at 2005, 2010 and 2011 year to date numbers.  In 2005 41 new listings hit the market through March, 42 during the same period in 2010, 41 new listings have come on the market to date in 2011.  In 2005, 29 homes were pending by the e/o March, 2010 had 8 pending – there are 3 pending for the 2011 period.  In 2005, 15 units sold during the period, in 2010 it was 8 – 2011 has shown 6 units sold.  When you look at contingent listings, properties under contract that presumably will soon sell, the picture brightens somewhat as there are 10 properties in this category.

Obviously the Hanover market is still finding its footing, as it seems the rest of the nation is.  If you throw out the 2009 spring data as literally no one was buying real estate during the period immediately after the 2008 crash, the spring 2011 market is the slowest in a decade with only 9 units sold or pending.   2011 is clearly starting off as another year where market conditions favor Buyers in the Hanover real estate market.  It will be interesting to see how things evolve as the rest of the year unfolds, we will keep you posted.